Sunday, November 13, 2005

the attack on OATS

As an OATS short, I think it's a worthwile pursuit to track WFMI's expansion plans. As I've stated before, I think this increased competition in OATS markets is underappreciated by many of the OATS analysts/longs. Here is an excel schedule that provides some detail into WFMI's existing store base. From this schedule, it appears that in the past 3 months, 3 new WFMI stores opened that will compete directly with 3 existing OATS stores. Bear in mind that these stores will be bigger and most likely more productive than the OATS stores in these locations.

OATS Existing Store
New WFMI Store
WFMI store sq. ft.


Upper Arlington, OH
Dublin, OH
74,000

Omaha, NE
Omaha, NE
61,000

West Hartford, CT
West Hartford, CT
47,000


Plus the WFMI expansion is only picking up steam. As of 11/9/05, WFMI announced 64 stores in development compared to OATS' 16. Finally, WFMI stores in development average 55,000 sq. feet compared to 30-35,000 sq. feet of new OATS stores.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

You were short in single digits yes?
This a valuation discrepency situation with several catalysts to drive it past 15.
The 2m share block a month ago is good for starters.
To compare apples/apples wise with WFMI risks missing why this stock is and will continue to go up, becareful. We hate to see people lose money when they fail to throw an open mind to the situation, we've been at this longer than most, yourself included.

7:20 PM  
Blogger BTS said...

anonymous,
Yes I started to short OATS in the single digits and continued to short up to $14. A 2 million block trade is a catalyst? Que? And what valuation metric are you looking at. P/S maybe? Price to Sales (or some derivation) is the only valuation metric an OATS long can hold his hat on. And not comparing OATS to WFMI store rollout plans risks missing why OATS will continue to go down. Thanks for your concern. Reiterate super strong sell on OATS.

6:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just saw Rahobed on the news tonight. Baaad boy!

5:58 PM  

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